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Gambling Online - It’s always easy to evaluate a decision based on its results. Sunday’s NFL action gave us two prime examples of what are now being called a good decision and a bad decision based mostly on their results.

The Indianapolis Colts’ come-from-behind 35–34 victory over the New England Patriots in Indianapolis will be remembered for Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4th-and-2 from his own 28-yard line with 2:08 left in the game with his Pats up 34–28.

The New England Patriots head coach made a controversial decision. The other choice would have been to punt the ball away to the Colts and make Peyton Manning run the typical two-minute drill.

Instead, Belichick weighed the balance of probabilities and felt that offense was his best form of defense. He is a Hall of Fame coach with a Hall of Fame QB (Tom Brady) and he has to gain two yards to win the game. He liked that choice over having his above average defense take on the league’s best at the two-minute drill.

“Thought it was our best chance to win,” said Belichick in his Monday morning press conference. “I put the team first. I would hope everybody understands that.”

Belichick did put the team first but, reading between the lines, he did not have enough confidence in his defense’s ability to get the job done.

“You have to give your defense a chance to play defense,” said ESPN football analyst Tom Jackson. Conventional wisdom would say that you have to trust your defense has to come up big when called upon.

On the play, Tom Brady threw a short pass to Kevin Faulk, who bobbled the ball but eventually caught it. But he was stopped short of the first down. Football is a game of inches. Because of that bobble, Faulk was ruled to only have possession of the ball after he had been stopped short of the first down.

Peyton Manning and the Colts got the ball back on the New England 29-yard line with two minutes to play. That’s an easy two-minute drill for the master that is Peyton Manning.

Belichick was slammed for his decision to not punt the ball and make Manning go the length of the field. But Manning is not some ordinary QB. He forced Belichick to do something unconventional. How would we have reacted had Faulk not bobbled the ball and made the first down? It’s not hard to see how Belichick would have been credited with yet another brilliant coaching decision.

Taking a Knee

Sports Gambling - A decision that is widely being labeled as being smart took place near the end of the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the New York Jets.

But it very easily could have gone all wrong.


Jags running back Maurice Jones-Drew could have scored the go-ahead touchdown with his team trailing 22–21 late in the fourth quarter. Instead, the running back was instructed not to score the TD so that the Jags could run some more time off the clock before kicking the game-winning field goal.

All went according to plan for the Jags, as Jones-Drew took a knee at the Jets’ 1-yard line. Three plays later, Josh Scobee kicked a 21-yard field goal to give the Jags a 24–22 win on the last play of the game.

But, suppose there was a bad snap on the field goal attempt. Suppose the field goal was blocked. Suppose the Jags fumbled on one of the plays following Jones-Drew’s run. Then, in all likelihood, the Jags would have lost.

What if Jones-Drew had scored the TD? The Jags would be up 28–22 and rookie QB Mark Sanchez and the mediocre Jets’ offense would be forced to run the two-minute drill. If you’re a Jaguar, you probably like your chances in this scenario.

A strong case could be made for Jones-Drew scoring the TD. But because the desired result was achieved with Jones-Drew taking a knee, the Jacksonville coaching staff and Jones-Drew’s decision is being lauded as good.

The NFL Thursday night schedule kicks off this week with an NFC matchup featuring a pair of teams clinging to post-season hopes. This is “must-win” territory for both the Chicago Bears and the San Francisco 49ers.

The Bears, at 4-4 on the season, have not traveled well as of late. They sport a dismal mark of 2-7 straight up in their last nine road games and also are 2-7 against the spread in those games as well.

The Niners, sitting at 3-5 on the year, have been a profitable play for their backers, boasting an 8-3-2 mark against the spread in their last 13 starts.

Online sportsbook currently have this line pegged at -3 on the home side 49ers. The Over/Under is set at 43.5.

SPORTSBETTING.com is reporting betting action that slightly favors the home side, with San Fran receiving 57% of all the volume that has come in to this point.

The sports gambling community hasn’t made their mind up on the Total yet either, as the action is 53% tilted to the “Over”. The favorite and the “Over” isn’t an unusual betting pattern for the “public” when it comes to nationally televised games, but this one is more balanced than usual. Rather than really liking a side, it seems bettors feel they can’t fully trust either team.

Looking at the Total, worth noting is that Chicago has a mark of 9 Overs and 3 Unders the last 12 times they’ve played a team from the NFC West.

When these two meet head-to-head, San Fran has had a clear edge, but keep in mind many of these results were produced with teams that bear little resemblance to the current editions.

Dating back to 1985, Chicago is only 4-10 against the spread 14 contests.

Chicago is also on six-game (0-6) ATS and straight up slump in their last six games visiting San Francisco.

Look for the losing streak to continue on Thursday night, as the Niners running game, led by Frank Gore, and their defense lead them to a home win on this Thursday nighter.

Check NFL betting guide and NFL lines

Gambling Online - Surprise, surprise — the Saints and Colts are in the top two spots in this week’s NFL Power Rankings. New Orleans and Indianapolis both improved to 8-0 and stay at their respective spots for the sixth week in a row.

The Steelers jump two spots to No. 3, ahead of the Vikings, who have a better record and were on a bye this week. The Broncos fall two spots to No.6 after their second loss in a row on Monday night. Denver now is looking up at the Patriots. Let the controversy and angry comments begin!

A steady decline for the Packers has been the pattern over the past couple of weeks. Green Bay now falls to No.20 after an embarrassing loss to the previously winless Buccaneers.

Sports Gambling - The Browns didn’t play in Week 9, nonetheless, they fall to the No. 32 spot after Tampa’s victory. I think we all know if the Browns were playing this week they would’ve lost. Browns fans probably thought they had a week off from misery, but not even a week off can prevent bad news for Cleveland fans.

1. (Last week, 1) 8-0-0 The Saints step up and know how to get the job done in the fourth quarter. These comeback wins can only help the Saints become more confident and help them improve.

2. (2) 8-0-0 Two straight weeks of mediocre play from the Colts. However, they still were able to pull out the win in each game. It will be interesting to see how the injuries on defense will affect them.

3. (5) 6-2-0 The Steelers are rolling and are a team that nobody in the NFL wants to face. That is usually the case when the defense is the best in the league. An 18-point victory on the road vs. Denver is impressive.

4. (3) 7-1-0 It will be interesting to see how Brett Favre performs in the second half of the season.

5. (6) 6-2-0 Now is the time for the Patriots to prove what they are capable of. The play of Laurence Maroney over the past few games has really helped balance this offense.

6. (4) 6-2-0 The Broncos need to find a way to establish a run game with their talented backs, Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter. The two combined for 27 yards against the Steelers, which is an unacceptable total no matter which team they face.

7. (7) 6-2-0 People continue to doubt Cincinnati, and the Bengals continue to make those doubters “kiss the baby.” The Bengals still have the Lions, Chiefs, Raiders and Browns on their schedule.

8. (9) 6-2-0 There is a lot of confidence in the Cowboys locker room. That is what a four-game winning streak will do for a team. In this stretch of wins, Dallas has managed to beat two solid teams in the Falcons and Eagles. If Tony Romo can continue to protect the football, this team can compete with the best in the NFC.

9. (11) 5-3-0 Michael Turner turned in another great performance and is helping the offense become more balanced and effective.

10. (8) 5-3-0 The Eagles have four divisional games to play in the second half of the season and will be a tough team down the stretch because of their defense. They are able to get great pressure on the quarterback and that is resulting in a lot of sacks and interceptions. The Eagles are ranked second in the league in both those categories.

11. (16) 5-4-0 The Texans showed signs they can play with the elite teams in the NFL. Losing after missing a field goal that could have sent the game into overtime against the division rival Colts must be a tough pill to swallow. Lots of credit has to go to Houston for being able to shut down Peyton Manning for the most part of the second half. The Texans can take a lot out of this loss.

12. (18) 5-3-0 Impressive final drive by Philip Rivers and the Chargers. San Diego needed a win against a team with a winning record and it got that on Sunday. We’ll learn a lot about this team in the next couple of weeks with Philadelphia and Denver next on the schedule.

13. (10) 4-4-0 Baltimore’s inconsistency continued to be a problem Sunday. The offense relies too heavily on Ray Rice, and that has cost the Ravens this year. They’re lacking a big-play wide receiver.

14. (20) 5-3-0 The only thing we really can take from the Cardinals’ victory over the Bears is that Kurt Warner and his team play really well on the road and know how to win. Four of their five wins have come on the road. This team has been extremely inconsistent. Unfortunately for the Cards, they have to play in Arizona this week.

15. (13) 3-5-0 Dolphins players must be scratching their heads after Joey Porter’s performance Sunday. Miami has yet to prove it can beat a solid team in the NFL.

16. (12) 5-4-0 Four straight losses and the Giants might be ready to press the panic button. Eli Manning is playing mediocre at best, the pass rush hasn’t been consistent, and the play-calling has been questionable. If any team was in desperate need of a bye week, it’s the Giants. Let’s see if they’ll be able to figure it out and get back to their winning ways.

17. (15) 4-4-0 The Bears allowed the Cardinals to score on their first six possessions. Chicago’s defense can’t get any pressure on the quarterback, and the way Cardinals manhandled the Bears proves Chicago needs to figure something out fast defensively before the playoffs are out of reach.

18. (19) 4-4-0 Rex Ryan will be called a genius or an idiot after giving his team six days off during its bye week. The Jets certainly will come out rejuvenated at the Meadowlands this Sunday against Jacksonville.

19. (14) 3-5-0 The 49ers’ main problem all season has been at the quarterback position, and that continued on Sunday. Three interceptions really puts a team in a hole, and San Francisco wasn’t able to climb out.

20. (17) 4-4-0 Aaron Rodgers committed turnovers and the Packers lost to one of the worst teams in football. This loss could have bounced the Packers out of a playoff spot. Teams that are competing for that last wild card spot in the NFC — the Falcons, Cowboys and Eagles — are playing way out of the Packers’ league.

21. (21) 3-5-0 Got to like the idea of Michael Vick going to the Bills. It seems like a perfect fit.

22. (24) 4-4-0 The Jaguars responded well to the change to the 4-3 defense. Jacksonville got good pressure on the quarterback and forced some interceptions. However, it’s tough to take much from a win over the offensively challenged Chiefs.

23. (23) 3-5-0 Take a look at the box score from Seattle’s win over Detroit and you’ll see that Matt Hasselbeck was able to complete a pass to nine different receivers. Six of those receivers caught five passes or more. The Seahawks didn’t get rattled after falling to a 17-0 deficit in the first quarter and did a great job coming back.

24. (22) 3-5-0 Jake Delhomme didn’t throw an interception for the second straight game, but the offense still is struggling. The Panthers are in desperate need of Steve Smith to step up and make big plays offensively, but that has happened very rarely this year.

25. (25) 2-6-0 Vince Young is playing with a lot of confidence and led his team to another victory on Sunday. The key to the Titans’ success over the past two weeks is Young has been able to protect the football and not commit any turnovers while relying on Chris Johnson to make the big plays and score points.

26. (26) 2-6-0 The Raiders are expecting four starters to return to the lineup this week, including wide receiver Chaz Schilens and running back Darren McFadden. However, I’m more interested to see how the Tom Cable story plays out for the rest of the season.

27. (27) 2-6-0 Will good news ever come out of Washington? Just when Redskins fans thought things couldn’t get any worse, Clinton Portis suffers a concussion.

28. (28) 1-7-0 One step in the right direction for the Chiefs with the release of disgruntled running back Larry Johnson. Great chance for the Chiefs to get their second win of the season this week against Oakland.

29. (29) 1-6-0 The Rams have one of the worst defenses in the league and will play the Saints in week 10. St. Louis has trouble putting pressure on the passer, and with Drew Brees having all kinds of time back in the pocket, I don’t like the Rams’ chances of getting their second win of the season.

30. (32) 1-7-0 After getting their first win, will the Bucs wear those creamsicle uniforms for the rest of the season? I hope so.

31. (30) 1-7-0 Growing pains were expected from No. 1 overall draft pick Matthew Stafford. The Lions need to concentrate more on ways to help Stafford improve and less on winning games.

32. (31) 1-7-0 With the way things are being run in Cleveland, the Browns could continue to be a horrendous team into the next millennium.

Betting Guide - The NFL does not intend to further discipline former Chiefs RB Larry Johnson.

League spokesman Greg Aiello told the Kansas City Star the one-game suspension Johnson served on Sunday, prior to his release on Monday, will stand.

"The club took disciplinary action in this matter,and we determined it was appropriate," Aiello told the paper in an e-mail.

Johnson belittled coach Todd Haley on Twitter two weeks ago and then used gay slurs with reporters in the team's locker room. - Betting Online

The NFL suspended Johnson for one game last season for violating the league's personal-conduct policy. The Chiefs banned him last month for conduct detrimental to the team.